Anthropic's $30 trillion fantasy
- 原文链接: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/anthropics-30-trillion-fantasy
- 作者: Gary Marcus
- 日期: 2026-08-25
- 分类: industry
- 来源类型: article
- 标签: industry, anthropic, open-source, business, ipo
- 质量评分: 3/5
原文（抓取存档）
# Anthropic’s $30 trillion fantasy
> 作者: Gary Marcus
> 发布时间: 2026-08-25T23:43:43.391Z
> 原文链接: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/anthropics-30-trillion-fantasy
---
# Anthropic’s $30 trillion fantasy
### And you thought the SpaceX S-1 was ridiculous
[
](https://substack.com/@garymarcus)
[Gary Marcus](https://substack.com/@garymarcus)
Aug 26, 2026
267
71
28
Share
A lot of people (not me) are bothered by the just-reported fact that Anthropic has sometimes asked prospective employees whether they are comfortable with the possibility that the price of the company stock could potentially crash to zero.
[
](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WhEF!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F43e97675-b79b-4b54-9423-bbccf65a189b_1481x845.png)
But whatever Anthropic may ask employees, they certainly seem to have other plans. Big plans:
[
](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MjWv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0d458fad-1ecf-4ad3-b1d5-e11f6c0a212f_1194x1572.jpeg)
How crazy is that? These two tweets give some context:
[
](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6H2D!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf1a7337-3509-4578-94d3-d98ccdf826d3_1363x1376.png)
and, in slightly more detail, making clear who will be left holding the bag:
[
](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cYCK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F517830f9-d6f9-47d3-8902-7c08d5211994_1448x1664.png)
And of course it’s not just retail investors who will likely be left holding the bag, but pension funds, too.
§
Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, Thomson Reuters has become the latest company to pull back on its Claude usage.
[
Gary Marcus@GaryMarcus
still more bad news for Anthropic. if they don’t scale back expectations for their IPO, it’s going to be a trainwreck.
Charles Rollet @CharlesRollet1
NEW: Thomson Reuters wanted to rely less on Claude. So it built its own AI model off Alibaba's Qwen. TR's CTO says using frontier labs for intelligence, instead of building on open source, is like renting a house.
5:49 AM · Aug 25, 2026 · 198K Views
* * *
17 Replies · 44 Reposts · 386 Likes
](https://x.com/garymarcus/status/2092006514005598635?s=61)
The race between fantasy and reality continues.
[Share](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/anthropics-30-trillion-fantasy?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share)
[
](https://substack.com/profile/254478601-stephen-mattern)[
](https://substack.com/profile/4713253-david-sokolin)[
](https://substack.com/profile/6772000-geoff-livingston)[
](https://substack.com/profile/130121135-jared)[
](https://substack.com/profile/1787661-jeffery-miller)
267 Likes∙
[28 Restacks](https://substack.com/note/p-212775404/restacks?utm_source=substack&utm_content=facepile-restacks)
267
71
28
Share中文导读
Gary Marcus 拼接 Anthropic 近期几件事的评论：IPO 前给员工的问卷出现「能否接受股价归零」字眼，对外叙事却宣传 30 万亿美元量级的财务想象；现实侧硬数据是 Thomson Reuters 8 月 25 日宣布把内部 AI 从 Claude 切到基于 Qwen 自建的模型，其 CTO 原话「用 frontier 实验室的智能像租房，建在开源之上才是买房」。Marcus 把这条切线当作 Anthropic 估值故事与客户现实之间的裂缝：企业客户在用脚投票往开源和自建走，一旦 Thomson Reuters 级客户大规模切走，能力领先也撑不起份额假设；IPO 不调整预期则碰撞几乎可预见。立场鲜明的评论文章，数据点（客户切换、问卷措辞）真实，结论方向带作者一贯的批判立场，读时需自行校准。
为什么值得关注
Thomson Reuters 从 Claude 切向自建 Qwen 模型被当成估值叙事的裂缝样本；观点文章，数据真实、结论需自行校准
English Summary
Gary Marcus assembles recent Anthropic items into an argument: IPO-adjacent employee surveys floated the possibility of the stock going to zero while the public narrative promotes $30-trillion-scale financial imagination; meanwhile Thomson Reuters announced on Aug 25 it is moving internal AI from Claude to a self-built Qwen-based model, its CTO saying renting frontier intelligence is renting while building on open source is owning. Marcus reads this as the crack between the valuation story and customer reality: enterprises are voting with their feet toward open source and self-building. A pointed opinion piece -- the data points are real, the conclusion carries the author's usual critical stance.
Obsidian Notes
- Body fetched via
opencli web read --url https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/anthropics-30-trillion-fantasy --download-images false -f md(2026-08-27). - 原文全文存档于上方代码块；导读锚定正文事实。